I agree with Schreck -- "Attacking Russia" would be number 1, but I picked Operation Bagration. The entire destruction of Army Group Centre irrevocably sealed the fate of Germany. Had that been avoided Germany still held the hope of negotiating some sort of peace short of unconditional surrender with the West. That's all hypothetical since the West's policy was one of unconditional surrender, but I doubt the West would even have considered using an A-bomb in Europe. A stalemate through the end of 45 in Europe could have changed the tide of political views regarding a negotiated piece (aka similar to the Treaty of Versailles). I guess I've rephrased the question since in my scenario (where Bagration doesn't occur) Germany still loses, but it's quite possibly a different type of loss.
As to what battle of those listed could have changed the ultimate outcome of the war, I'd say Stalingrad. If Germany had cancelled it's drive on the Caucuses oil fields and it's drive on Leningrad and renewed it's focus on a single knockout blow of Moscow in 1942, it may forced Russia to the bargaining table. Committing to Stalingrad forever changed the face of the Eastern Front and drained precious manpower from the German military.
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"Blessed is the man who does not walk in the counsel of the wicked or stand in the way of sinners or sit in the seat of mockers. But his delight is in the law of the Lord, and on his law he meditates day and night. He is like a tree planted by streams of water, which yields its fruit in season and whose leaf does not wither. Whatever he does prospers." Psalms 1:1-3
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